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Decent valueActiveSmokin' Hot Million · $10 · Michigan Lottery
Smokin' Hot Million: Decent value. A $10 ticket pays back $7.76 on average.
▲ +1.1 pts vs launch#6 of 27 · $10 MI gamesUpdated Jun 16, 2026, 12:30 PM
▲ +1.1 pts vs launch#6 of 27 · $10 MI gamesUpdated Jun 16, 2026, 12:30 PM
Smokin' Hot Million is a $10 scratch-off ticket from the Michigan state lottery. Its current expected value is 77.6%, up 1.1 percentage points from the launch value of 76.5%. 2 of the original 3 $1,000,000 top prizes are still unclaimed. Approximately 45% of the 6.1M printed tickets have been sold.
77.6%
expected return
1 in 3.77
odds of any win
2 of 3
$1M jackpots left
45%
claimed · 2.8M of 6.1M printed
Odds, in plain terms
If you bought 100 tickets today
Based on the 890,775 winning tickets still unclaimed.
16 win more than $10
$20 – $100, an actual profit
10 win their money back
a $10 prize, so you break even
74 win nothing
the house edge, made visible
Prizes of $500 or more hit about 1 in 4,289 tickets, so they won't show up in a batch of 100.
Value map
Where the $7.76 comes from
The average payback per ticket, split by prize size. Small wins do most of the work.
Small wins $10 – $500
$7.10 · 71.0% of price
Mid prizes $2K – $10K
$0.07 · 0.7% of price
Jackpots $1M+
$0.60 · 6.0% of price
Realistic return, jackpots set aside
71.6%
Just 2 tickets out of 3.4M carry the $1M+ prizes. This is your expected return if none of them is yours.
Most of the value pays out as
$10 – $500 wins
890,698 winning tickets remain in this range: 91% of total value, and the wins you'll actually see.
Claim progress
45% claimed, and the jackpots are still out there
Counting every ticket since launch, May 2025.
6.1M
tickets printed
2.8M
tickets claimed · 45%
3.4M
still out there
Prizes claimed over time
Claim chart needs more snapshot history
Jackpots are outlasting sales: good for buyers.
Jackpots left
67%
Tickets left
55%
67% of top prizes remain with only 55% of tickets left to claim them.
Where to buy
Michigan Lottery
At retailers statewide, or online through Jackpocket. Affiliate link: Scratchstats may earn a commission.
Rank vs $10 MI peers
#6 of 27
By expected return. Higher is better for the player.
Figures from Michigan Lottery published claim data, updated Jun 16, 2026, 12:30 PM.
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