D
Weak valueActiveBirthday Surprise · $2 · New Jersey Lottery
Birthday Surprise: Weak value. A $2 ticket pays back $1.30 on average.
▼ -1.5 pts vs launch#2 of 7 · $2 NJ gamesUpdated Aug 2, 2026, 12:25 AM
▼ -1.5 pts vs launch#2 of 7 · $2 NJ gamesUpdated Aug 2, 2026, 12:25 AM
Birthday Surprise is a $2 scratch-off ticket from the New Jersey state lottery. Its current expected value is 65.0%, down 1.5 percentage points from the launch value of 66.5%. 2 of the original 3 $10,000 top prizes are still unclaimed. Approximately 55% of the 3.5M printed tickets have been sold.
65.0%
expected return
1 in 4.53
odds of any win
2 of 3
$10K top prizes left
55%
claimed · 2M of 3.5M printed
Odds, in plain terms
If you bought 100 tickets today
Based on the 348,926 winning tickets still unclaimed.
12 win more than $2
$4 – $100, an actual profit
10 win their money back
a $2 prize, so you break even
78 win nothing
the house edge, made visible
Prizes of $500 or more hit about 1 in 23,227 tickets, so they won't show up in a batch of 100.
Value map
Where the $1.30 comes from
The average payback per ticket, split by prize size. Small wins do most of the work.
Small wins $2 – $500
$1.28 · 64.0% of price
Mid prizes $1K – $10K
$0.02 · 1.0% of price
Most of the value pays out as
$2 – $500 wins
348,912 winning tickets remain in this range: 98% of total value, and the wins you'll actually see.
Claim progress
55% claimed, and the jackpots are still out there
Counting every ticket since launch, Jul 2025.
3.5M
tickets printed
2M
tickets claimed · 55%
1.6M
still out there
Prizes claimed over time
Claim chart needs more snapshot history
Jackpots are outlasting sales: good for buyers.
Jackpots left
67%
Tickets left
45%
67% of top prizes remain with only 45% of tickets left to claim them.
Where to buy
New Jersey Lottery
At retailers statewide, or online through Jackpocket. Affiliate link: Scratchstats may earn a commission.
Rank vs $2 NJ peers
#2 of 7
By expected return. Higher is better for the player.
Figures from New Jersey Lottery published claim data, updated Aug 2, 2026, 12:25 AM.
S
Scratchstats